Some analysts are starting to believe that Ohio is no longer a swing state, but a reliably red state.
According to a recent report at NBC News, Joe Biden may be the first person to win the presidency since 1960 to do so without winning Ohio.
According to Mark Caleb Smith, a Political Science professor at Cedarvill University in Ohio, “”I think that Ohio really isn’t a representative of the whole country the way that it once was,”
“Ohio now is a much more red state than it is a purple state,” Smith said. “If you look at recent elections, statewide, presidential or gubernatorial, Republicans have done extremely well. I just think that means Ohio has taken a different turn. I think Ohio has shifted a little bit, and it’s no longer that middle part of the country — it’s probably a little more on the right, traditional, conservative side.“
Others take it a step further, “This election result emphatically tells us Ohio is no longer relevant for the purposes of picking the president,” said NBC News contributor David Wasserman.
Additionally, “Because of population and demographic changes, Ohio is a little whiter than some other Midwestern states, so it votes in a different way,” Smith said.
NBC does appear to take it’s analysis seriously and present the information with an acceptable level of bias, I have a different take on some of this than their analysts.
It’s Not About Race
First of all, I do not think it’s about race. As the exit polling shows, President Trump grew his base in every racial category except whites. Saying that Ohio is redder because it’s whiter is rather ridiculous after the 2020 election.
Ohio Didn’t Become More Conservative
It’s likely that Ohio didn’t become more conservative, but the Democratic party became more liberal. Go back and check out my article on the shifting parties and the politically homeless.
Think about it this way – Imagine you’re standing 10 feet to the right of a pole in the ground. Today I look at you and measure it and sure enough, you’re 10 feet away.
I come back in a few months and now you’re 12 feet away from the pole. So, I proclaim you moved 2 feet to the right.
While this is possibly true, there is another possibility as well – The pole was moved to the left.
This is just a quick analogy to explain the point, but the article linked above explains it in far more detail.
Democrats Became More Liberal
It is now a fact that the Democrat party has moved far to the left. Positions that used to be politically ridiculous are now the party platform including: Green New Deal, socialized medicine, and mass immigration among others.
This leaves massive amounts of moderates without a home who previously voted or identified as Democrats.
Pay Attention to Media Framing
There are many states and counties that were considered “bellwethers.” This means that the vast majority of the time these areas vote the same direction as who ultimately wins.
These areas may not be the deciding factor on who wins, but that the direction they vote tends to be the direction the nation votes.
I believe that the way the media is framing this information about Ohio (as well as Florida and other areas) is to cast a cloud over the fact that something like 80-90% of bellwethers went for Trump. I’ve heard different numbers floating around so I don’t know the exact percentage, but the fact is this has never happened and this is not normal or OK.
They are essentially saying these bellwethers “moved right” so they no longer represent the country. They all did it suddenly and randomly as well with no warning.
I don’t need to point out that demographic and electoral changes happen slowly over the course of decades generally, not in two years between 2018 and 2020.
This is just one piece of evidence showing widespread irregularities in this election. While there is factual evidence of a lot of fraud, I believe the irregularities are where Trump stands a chance in court.
But, regardless of the outcome, the damage has already been done to our Republic.